One reason miners generally pay more attention to the price of bitcoin is that mining machines have a strong positive correlation to its fluctuations. And bitcoin’s dollar-denominated value fell sharply this month, as mining hardware prices followed suit.
At its most recent low, Bitcoin trades near $ 17,000, a drop of more than 60% to date. Over the same period, prices of the most efficient mining machines fell by 41%, as described below.
Observing the relationship between Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining prices provides a useful insight into the mining sector’s response to bitcoin price volatility and the timing of collecting discounted hardware.
This article reviews current market price data for bitcoin mining machines, its correlation to bitcoin, and discusses how and when miners can engage with summer hardware sales as buyers.
Latest bitcoin mining hardware price data inside
According to market data compiled by Luxor Mining, the most expensive and low-cost parts of mining hardware have seen a decline in prices over the short year. TeraHash machines with a efficiency of more than 38 joules (J / TH) and less than 68 J / TH saw a nearly 40% drop from January. Over the same period, Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 60%.
Bitcoin mining rig price change from efficiency.
While the recent price declines for bitcoin and some mining machines have been the same on a percentage basis, the downward trend has not fully started or progressed in sync with each other. The chart below shows two peaks in the price of Bitcoin during April 2021 and November 2021. Readers will note that the prices of mining machines (shown for the top-two efficiency ranges) did not reach a peak after approximately one month in both cases.
Bitcoin mining rig prices follow Bitcoin price changes.
Although machine prices are closely related to the price of bitcoin, they are still lagging behind. The following section gives a brief explanation of why, but prospective buyers can often use the fluctuations in Bitcoin as a near-term indicator of where machine prices may be.
Why Mining Machine Prices Follow Bitcoin Price
The price of bitcoin mining hardware is closely related to the price of bitcoin for two main reasons.
For one thing, since the hash rate usually follows or backs up the price movement of bitcoin, one should expect the prices of bitcoin mining hardware – the source of the hash rate – to fall back. The reason for this is easily explained: For example, when bitcoin is at a constant rate, some miners facing declining profits choose to unplug and liquidate their hardware, which introduces greater sales pressure in the mining hardware market.
The same scenario reverses during bullish periods when miners – encouraged by rising mining revenues – collect and deploy new machines. Of course, market trends in each trend (up or down) never happen very cleanly, but in general, this analysis illustrates the incentive for machine prices to follow the price of bitcoin.
Since the hash rate usually follows the price of bitcoin, the prices of bitcoin mining rigs can also be expected to fall behind.
Mining hardware prices are falling behind Bitcoin due to the basic function of “money printers”, which are reluctant to sell their owners who are inherently bullish. This sector of the Bitcoin economy is always dominated by significant gaps between the operating costs, capital expenditures, and overall bullish theory required to start mining. When the price goes up, miners are eager to buy more hash rates. But when bitcoin prices start to fall, miners with thin profit margins and poorly-planned operations – despite their bullish philosophies – are forced to stop hashing and often bankrupt their hardware. In short, internet money printers are valuable and no one is keen to sell theirs.
It is worth noting that the slight drop in the price of Bitcoin is usually not enough pressure to separate the miner from their machines. But the continued downward trend of miners over the last several weeks has finally forced low-profit miners to raise money by selling hardware.
Where to Buy Bitcoin Mining Hardware
The market for mining hardware is now bigger and more sophisticated than any time in the history of Bitcoin, thanks to the many companies that have built hardware marketplaces to serve retail miners. Most of these resale markets, however, are mostly used by large corporate buyers who do not work directly with manufacturers such as Bitmain or MicroBT.
Some of the major mining hardware markets are run by Kaboomrox, Mining Store, Upstream Data and Compass Mining. Other marketplaces exist, but the hardware market is full of scandals. The effects of the bitcoin price decline are already being seen in the machine market, for example by Kaboomrox, where a lot of low-efficiency hardware is listed by miners. The company announced that its availability to accept older machines, such as the Antminer S9s, was limited, to prevent a potential flood of miners looking to go bankrupt.
Mining pools such as Foundry and Luxor also provide hardware brokerage services for serious miners. But beyond the company names listed in this article, every prospective buyer should be cautious before sending any money to anyone who pretends to be a hardware vendor.
Retail miners (aka., Plebs) can be purchased directly from the manufacturer. Sometimes website purchases are restricted or unavailable in small quantities (usually at the time of buyer demand in the bull market), which can only be ordered by corporate buyers who have direct access to the manufacturer’s team. But in the current market, manufacturers have a steep discount on dollar-denominated machine prices and their website listings are plentiful.
How does Bitcoin Mining Machine prices change from here?
If the price of Bitcoin starts to reverse course and significantly, the prices of the mining machine will eventually follow. Further sales will reduce hardware prices. And in that scenario, it is impossible to predict exactly how low and how long mining machine prices will fall.
Low-cost moves from Bitcoin, however, are sure to trigger higher machine supply in the resale market because low-efficiency mining operations may force some assets to liquidate. In both cases, the price of Bitcoin serves as an indicator of mining hardware prices, and in general, miners can plan their machine purchases accordingly.
This is a guest post by Zach Voll. The opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.