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Retailers will last longer despite the downside risks

Gold, XAU / USD, Silver, XAG / USD, Technical Analysis, Retailer Positioning – Talking Points

  • Fundamental analysis hints that gold and silver may continue to fall
  • Retailer baits give an upside-down look at gold, while silver has trouble
  • How do the technicals match the fundamentals, the positioning?

Gold and silver prices have been struggling to find momentum in recent weeks amid global efforts by central banks to tame high inflation. This is creating a difficult environment for these anti-fiat precious metals. How has retailers positioned XAU / USD and XAG / USD in the midst of the recent price action and what does this mean for the next road? For a deeper dive into the analysis, check out this week’s webinar recording above.

Gold Sentiment Outlook – Bullish

The IGCS Gauge It shows that about 81% of retailers own net length of gold. IGCS serves as a contrast indicator. As such, the fact that traders retain net-length tips may continue to cause prices to fall. However, small bets rose 2.2% and 20.32%, respectively, compared to yesterday and last week. Keeping that in mind, recent changes in sentiment warn that gold may return higher.

Gold and silver price forecast: Retailers stay long despite the disadvantages

XAU / USD Daily Chart

On the daily chart, XAU / USD has been on the downtrend since early March, but the latest price move seems to be neutral. Yellow metal appears to be strengthening between resistance (1869 – 1879) and support (1787 – 1810). In fact, gold seems to form a bear rectangle. Breaking downtrend under the scope of support can be a sign of resume. It focuses on the lows from December. Otherwise, pushing the resistance above can change perspective Increasingly bullish.

Gold and silver price forecast: Retailers stay long despite the disadvantages

A chart is created in the business view

Silver Sentiment Outlook – Bearish

The IGCS Gauge Approximately 95% of retail investors show that they are net-length silver. The fact that almost the entire majority of traders are upside down is a sign that prices are falling. Downside exposure has been declining recently, down 12.79% and 33.92%, respectively, from yesterday and last week. With that in mind, the combination of current readings and recent changes in the IGCS hint that silver could remain partisan in trouble.

Gold and silver price forecast: Retailers stay long despite the disadvantages

XAG / USD Daily Chart

Silver, like gold, has been down since early March. The latest price move looks neutral. A Bearish Death Cross remains between 20- and 50-Day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which can cause trouble bias. Major support seems to be lower in May at 20.46. Clearing the latter reveals the midpoint of the Fibonacci expansion at 19.63. Otherwise, clearing the resistance (22.20 – 22.51) opens the door to bullish technical vision.

Gold and silver price forecast: Retailers stay long despite the disadvantages

A chart is created in the business view

* IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used June 21stSte Report

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Technician For DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX On Twitter

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