The ongoing inverted retracement of the XRP causes exhaustion because it tests the level of resistance with a history of triggering a 65% price decline.
XRP rebates 30% of the price
XRP’s price gained nearly 30%, to $ 0.36 on June 24, rebounding from $ 0.28 four days later, its lowest level since January 2021.
According to its “cup and handle” model shown in the chart below, the token’s retracement rally can be extended to the next $ 0.41.
Interestingly, the gain target of the indicator is similar to the 50-day exponential moving average of the XRP (50-day EMA; red wave).
Major resistance obstruction
The Cup and Handle bullish reversal setup meets its profit target at a 61% success rate, according to veteran analyst Thomas Bolkowski.
But XRP’s case falls on the 39% failure spectrum because of its technical signal of conflict presented by its 200-4H exponential moving average (EMA).
XRP’s 200-4H EMA (blue wave in the chart below) has previously served as a strong delivery signal. Significantly, in April 2022, the token attempted to break the alleged wave resistance several times, only to face denials in each attempt; It then fell 65% to $ 0.28.
On June 23, the XRP 200-4H EMA stalled in the midst of an ongoing cup-and-handle breakout after being re-examined. Now, the token is awaiting further partisan confirmation and is facing the risk of a price drop just as it happened after April.
XRP’s over-bought Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is now above 70, increases the likelihood of an intermediate price correction.
The XRP LTF breakdown is underway
The downside of XRP’s short-term chart is that it comes in line with giant bearish setups on its long-term chart.
As Cointelegraph closed earlier, XRP has entered the stagnation phase after exiting its “descending triangle” structure in early May.
As a rule of technical analysis, its triangular decomposition must fall to the maximum height of the structure, which places its distress target near $ 1.86.
In other words, another 50% price drop for XRP could occur by the end of July this year.
50,000,000 #XRP Transferred from Ripple to Unknown Wallet https://t.co/FalGAzxNxg
– Whale Warning (@whale_alert) June 23, 2022
The macro risks led by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy further reinforce XRP’s bear bias. The XRP / USD pair will generally trade lower with risky assets in 2022, with a correlation coefficient of 0.90 as of June 24 with the Nasdaq Composite.
A score of 1 means that two assets move in perfect sync.
RELATED: About $ 100M Exits from US Crypto Funds in anticipation of Hawkish Monetary Policy
By contrast, prospects that Ripple wins a lawsuit filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for allegedly “selling” unregistered securities may negate bearings.
I have said that many in a year @Ripple And #XRP Supporters underestimate the negative impact the SEC lawsuit has had. B / c Ripple has done well outside the US and is hiring, etc., people say otherwise. But XRP should consider not having security in the US to fulfill its promise https://t.co/oBmiTQOWfJ
– John E. Deaton (203K followers beware fraudsters) (@ JohnEDeaton1) June 22, 2022
In fact, XRP may rebound to $ 0.91 by the end of this year if ongoing retracement continues. Interestingly, the token bounces after testing long-term trendline support as shown below.
The bounce also saw XRP’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) fall below 30 – the over-selling limit, which indicates a potential buying opportunity.
The opinions and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and business move involves risk, you must conduct your own research when making a decision.