Bitcoin (BTC) market worries near $ 20,000, but after narrowly avoiding breaking support, is bad really over?
According to many on-chain indicators, it seems that peak pain has yet to come to this cycle.
The stakes for many hoodlists have been increased this week – about 50% of the supply is being run at a loss, and miners are increasing their BTC shipments to exchanges.
Some of Bitcoin’s biggest investors, particularly MicroStrategy, have to defend their conviction on BTC as the price falls.
With targets under $ 11,000, Cointelegraph looks at how much the market must technically be down to accommodate historic bottom zones.
Weak huddlers have yet to be eliminated
Despite the eighteen month low, bitcoin pricing has not shaken all its speculators yet. According to the RHODL ratio from Philip Swift, creator of on-chain analytics resource LookIntoBitcoin, most surrender should be on the way.
This is because, historically, the ratio between short-term and long-term huddlers is the second most favorable for macro pricing.
RHODL specifically takes the ratio between the 1-week and 1-2-year cohorts of the Realized Cap HODL Waves metric, which divides the coins by the last move (weighted by the realized price).
Basically, once the green zone of RHODL, the surrender is at its peak and the price floor indicates that it is imminent or already set. So far, RHODL has yet to enter its green zone, the on-chain analytics firm GlassNode shows.
Not enough hoodlers are under water
The entire Bitcoin market may be at a loss, but at more than $ 20,000, many are still holding on to small gains in anticipation of a rebound.
Fellow on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that as of June 16, only 46% of total BTC supply was lost.
This in itself is statistically impressive but it is not enough to call a macro capitation event if historical models are taken into account.
According to CryptoQuant data, at least 60% of supply is required to cause unrealistic losses before it can be called capitalization – in March 2020, late 2018 and earlier.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju Noted The importance of BTC / USD returned to its realized price last week. This event marks the spot price under two years of manufacture, the average price at which all coins last moved.
“I’ve been waiting for this moment for 2 years with a big sale in March 2020,” he commented at the time.
The miners have no capitulation despite the “impressive” exchange flow
Although their production costs are closer to $ 30,000 than $ 20,000, the Bitcoin miner has not yet begun to cover costs with the combined BTC sale. Coins are moving to exchanges, however, at the highest rate in seven months, Cointelegraph recently reported.
Related: The $ 30K BTC price has a ‘drastic effect’ on Bitcoin Minor Profit
Likewise, the Bitcoin network hash rate has not taken a serious dive yet, which is common in times of significant price pressure.
The hash ribbons metric, created by Asset Manager Capriol CEO Charles Edwards, confirms the lack of trends.
Hash ribbons use 30-day and 60-day moving average hash rates to determine when a minor capitalization occurs. After the rising 30-day crosses over the 60-day, it can be assumed that the “bad” is over when the miners return to work.
So far, that crossover hasn’t happened yet, and historically, that means the maximum pain is ahead.
“Influential Bitcoin Minor Exchange Flows,” Max Krueger, economist, trader and entrepreneur, meanwhile, Has commented About this week’s miners activity:
“Many miners are in deep trouble with teenagers with $ BTC. It makes sense to be terrified yesterday in anticipation of 20k breaking.”
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